Android may be winning. But it isn’t matching Google’s expectations. (by @jkhowland)

According to a presentation given by Andy Rubin in July 2010, Google expected to sell some 10 million Android tablets a year in 2011 and 2012 and capture up to a third of the entire tablet market.

Google’s Expectation

So, Google expected Android tablets to have 33 percent of the market? Why is that so crazy?

Andy Rubin isn’t that far off. Actually Android is taking quite a reasonable share of the tablet market, Apple’s market share of tablets is on the decline:

IDC says this is largely accounted for by the Kindle Fire. Amazon reportedly shipped 4.7 million tablets to capture 16.8 percent of the market, raising Android’s share from 32.3 percent to 44.6 percent.

So, Android is doing well, it’s just not going exactly how Google might want, since the Kindle Fire is a home-brewed operating system only really ‘based’ on Android.

Google making money?

If you’re Google, you have created Android for one reason, to generate search revenue. The problem is that they haven’t really been successful with that.

Google also expected Android tablets to contribute up to $110m in search revenue in 2011 and $220m in 2012 — goals almost certainly missed as Android tablets have floundered in the market.

Interestingly enough, Google makes far more money (almost $1 billion) from iOS than they do from Android. If Google keeps investing in the mobile operating system they must be drinking some crazy reality distortion field kool-aid down in Android-ville.

Joshua Howland

Joshua is a mobile application developer, entrepreneur, and technology enthusiast. His favorite posts are comparing companies and products. He’s pretty good at predicting what Apple has up its sleeves too. He loves sports and business and talks about them (along with tech) on Twitter (@jkhowland).

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