Will Apple sell 48 million iPads in 2012?

Image from AllThingsD. Love it.

Analyst Shaw Wu believes that Apple will sell 48 million iPads in 2012.

“We believe this significant refresh will likely help drive higher iPad sales and help further differentiate from arguably the only real competitor in the market, Amazon’s Kindle Fire, and not to mention the myriad of Android offerings out there,” says Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu. “We are currently modeling 48 million iPad shipments for calendar 2012.”

48 Million iPad’s? That’s a lot.

The number may be surprising, but an analyst from Morgan Stanley sees a higher number: 81 million.

Let’s take a look at Apple’s 2011 Q4 report:

“Apple sold 11.12 million iPads during the quarter, a 166 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter.”

So if Apple can sell 11 million in one quarter, it can easily sell 44 million in a year, right?

Hypothetically yes, but let’s take a look at the other quarters*:

So if this year were to repeat itself, it would sell about 32 million. Q4 saw a 160% year-over-year improvement and Q3 was boosted 187% YOY. If Apple continues at that rate, sales will easily hit 48 million.

2012 will probably be the year I get an iPad, especially if Apple’s big announcement shakes up the world of digital textbooks as much as the rumors suggest.

Side note: iPod sales are dropping about 20% each quarter. How much time do they have left? Have any of you bought iPods in the past year?

(*This year’s numbers for Q1 have not been released yet. The Q1 numbers included cover Q1 2011, ending December 25, 2010. This year’s Q1 report should come soon).

UPDATE 24 Jan:

Apple sold 15.43 million iPads in Q1, compared to 7.33 million in Q1 last year. At that rate, Apple will easily hit 48 million iPad sales.

Tags: , , , , ,